On: July 11, 2025 In: Blog, Fixed Income, Knowledge Centre

09 July 2025

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

  • Bank Negara Malaysia cut the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 bps to 2.75% from 3%, first time in two years. The monetary policy easing decision came as no surprise as 15 of the 23 economists (65%) polled by Bloomberg expecting a rate cut. The central bank views that the interest rate cut as a pre-emptive measure to preserve Malaysia’s steady growth amid persistent external headwinds. The yield curve remained relatively unchanged following the MPC meeting with MGS 10-year yield fell 1 basis point to 3.36% as investors have largely priced in
    for a rate cut.
  • The central bank maintained a cautious growth outlook, citing continued support from domestic demand. Growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by sustained domestic demand and export growth. Looking ahead, the BNM expects growth to be supported by resilient domestic demand, sustained investment activities, as well as potential favorable trade negotiations by 1 Aug’25. Nevertheless, the central bank acknowledged the downside risks to the growth prospect stemming from subdued global trade, weaker sentiment, as well as lowerthan-expected commodity production.
  • Inflation is expected to remain moderate, citing contained global cost conditions and domestic demand pressures. Headline and core inflation averaged 1.4% and 1.9% in the first five months respectively. Inflationary pressures from both global commodity prices and the upcoming local policy reforms are projected to have a minimal impact on local prices.
  • Ringgit performance will continue to be driven by external factors. While the domestic economy remains steady, a weakening US dollar, combined with the rising fiscal concerns in the US on the most recent tax reform, may attract foreign investment inflows into Malaysia and bolster local currency as investors seek for diversification. Moving forward, the ringgit may continue to strengthen modestly within the range of 4.20 – 4.25 against US dollar.

Opus View

  • Looking ahead, we anticipate the central bank to implement at least one (1) rate cut by year-end depending on external drivers of growth and secondary inflationary impact from the expanded SST and revised electricity tariff structure. The local bond market is expected to remain stable on the back of strong local institutional demand and foreign investors amid a reduction in government bond supply.
  • We opine that the domestic bond market remains as safe haven for investors seeking to hedge against potential volatility in the equity market in 2025. We continue to see a limited risk-reward benefit from longer-end duration, as the yield curve remained relatively flat unless the market is pricing another rate cut in 1H2026. Hence, we target a duration between 5 – 7 years, while focusing on high quality corporate bonds for yield pick-up and trading opportunities to enhance returns from a relatively flat yield curve environment.
Disclaimer

The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual entity. Individual investors should contact their own licensed financial professional advisor to determine the most appropriate investment options. This material contains the opinions of the manager, based on assumptions or market conditions and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information provided herein may include data or opinion that has been obtained from, or is based on, sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. Opus Asset Management Sdn Bhd and its employees accept no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this material or its contents.